The following factors that contributed to the loss of power to the ruling party in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.
The ruling party lost more than 50 assembly seats by a margin of less than 1000 votes and 33 seats by a margin of less than 500 votes in elections to above states. The political analysts have done their statistical work on this and found the reason to be the polarisation of votes of middle-class population, farmers, Agricultural workers, ex-servicemen, financial sector retirees, and serving employees of central and state governments against the ruling party. As per experts in this field, this phenomenon is likely to be repeated in the coming elections to the assemblies of Rajasthan, MP, and Chhattisgarh and in the Lok Sabha election to be held in May 2024. “In the words of a Senior Political analyst, the era of affixing votes based on sentiments only is over & the prevailing factors determines the voting pattern’.
The Reason for earning their Anger is as follows.
1) Middle class.
The middle class of society is the worst hit by the rise in taxes, bearing the burden of a high rate of tax since they depend on income from employment and are the major consumers of the products available in the market.
2) Farmers.
They are a population that mostly depends on nature for their livelihood, and their income is flexible due to fluctuations in market conditions. Their agricultural products are not protected from hoardings by middlemen, and the MSP given is unscientific.
3) The other ranks of ex-servicemen, who form a major chunk of the ex-servicemen community, are agitated over the discriminatory treatment meted out to them on the implementation of OROP.
4)Financial sector retirees in banks, LIC, GIC, etc. are agitated and alienated from the ruling party for their failure to implement their long-pending demand for pension updation.
5)The serving employees are up in arms against the ruling party for their failure to comply with their demand of going back to OPS, which has already been rolled back in many opposition-ruled states as a poll promise. The
6)Social Security Scheme Promise in the Election Manifestos of Opposition Parties have yielded a good result in recently held Assembly elections. The pension to housewives, old age pension, widow pension, and unemployment compensation have large takers within the middle class.
7) Taking a clue from the trend in the recent Assembly elections and exit poll prediction for those states that are going to polls very soon, many central Bureaucrats have already switched their loyalty to opposition leaders, as witnessed in the initial period of the Second World War, in which Bureaucrats of British India switched loyalty to Germans. Presently, they are found to be repeating the same and have started taking orders from the leaders of the opposition party and extending a helping hand to them.
8) The combined effort of the above factors may cost much to the ruling party in the upcoming elections in those states that are likely to go to the polls soon. If things move in this direction as planned by the opposition parties, they are likely to make larger poll promises, which are likely to be attracted by the middle-class sections of society.
9) If such a volatile political situation arises, there is likely to be a fragmented polity in India after the next general election and a Kichadi government at the centre, always targeting the prosecution of leaders of the present ruling party rather than concentrating on administration. This may also cause great damage to the already well-built Indian economy, progress made in the defence research field, and other developments in science and technology.
10) If the ruling party does not mend its ways & find ways to regain support of the above sections of society, it will be very difficult for them to defend combined onslaught of opposition and to come to power in the center for the third time in 2024.
(An independent political analysis without bias or prejudice towards anyone.)
"An article on Indian Polity beyond sentiments"
By M B C Menon
Blogger & Columnist
