The following factors that contributed to the loss of power to the ruling party in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.
The ruling
party lost more than 50 assembly seats by a margin of less than 1000 votes and
33 seats by a margin of less than 500 votes in elections to above states. The
political analysts have done their statistical work on this and found the
reason to be the polarisation of votes of middle-class population, farmers, Agricultural
workers, ex-servicemen, financial sector retirees, and serving employees of
central and state governments against the ruling party. As per experts in this field, this phenomenon is
likely to be repeated in the coming elections to the assemblies of Rajasthan,
MP, and Chhattisgarh and in the Lok Sabha election to be held in May 2024.
The Reason
for earning their Anger is as follows.
1) Middle
class.
The middle
class of society is the worst hit by the rise in taxes, bearing the burden of a
high rate of tax since they depend on income from employment and are the major
consumers of the products available in the market.
2) Farmers.
They are a
population that mostly depends on nature for their livelihood, and their income
is flexible due to fluctuations in market conditions. Their agricultural
products are not protected from hoardings by middlemen, and the MSP given is
unscientific.
3) The other ranks of ex-servicemen, who form
a major chunk of the ex-servicemen community, are agitated over the
discriminatory treatment meted out to them on the implementation of OROP.
4)Financial
sector retirees in banks, LIC, GIC, etc. are agitated and alienated from the
ruling party for their failure to implement their long-pending demand for
pension updation.
5)The
serving employees are up in arms against the ruling party for their failure to
comply with their demand of going back to OPS, which has already been rolled
back in many opposition-ruled states as a poll promise. The
6)Social
Security Scheme Promise in the Election Manifestos of Opposition Parties have yielded
a good result in recently held Assembly elections. The pension to housewives,
old age pension, widow pension, and unemployment compensation have large takers
within the middle class.
7) Taking a
clue from the trend in the recent Assembly elections and exit poll prediction
for those states that are going to polls very soon, many central Bureaucrats
have already switched their loyalty to opposition leaders, as witnessed in the
initial period of the Second World War, in which Bureaucrats of British India
switched loyalty to Germans. Presently, they are found to be repeating the same
and have started taking orders from the leaders of the opposition party and
extending a helping hand to them.
8) The
combined effort of the above factors may cost much to the ruling party in the
upcoming elections in those states that are likely to go to the polls soon. If
things move in this direction as planned by the opposition parties, they are
likely to make larger poll promises, which are likely to be attracted by the
middle-class sections of society.
9) If such a
volatile political situation arises, there is likely to be a fragmented polity
in India after the next general election and a Kichadi government at the
centre, always targeting the prosecution of leaders of the present ruling party
rather than concentrating on administration. This may also cause great damage
to the already well-built Indian economy, progress made in the defence research
field, and other developments in science and technology.
10) If the
ruling party does not mend its ways & find ways to regain support of the
above sections of society, it will be very difficult for them to defend
combined onslaught of opposition and to come to power in the centre for the
third time in 2024.
(An
independent political analysis without bias or prejudice towards anyone.)
"An article on Indian Polity beyond sentiments"
By M B C Menon
Blogger & Columnist
