Tuesday, 25 July 2023
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Wednesday, 28 June 2023
Friday, 16 June 2023
BEYOND THE SENTIMENTS, COUNTRY IS LIKELY TO FACE A FRAGMENTED POLITY AND A KICHADI GOVT AT CENTER AFTER 2024 GENERAL ELECTION
The following factors that contributed to the loss of power to the ruling party in Himachal Pradesh and Karnataka.
The ruling
party lost more than 50 assembly seats by a margin of less than 1000 votes and
33 seats by a margin of less than 500 votes in elections to above states. The
political analysts have done their statistical work on this and found the
reason to be the polarisation of votes of middle-class population, farmers, Agricultural
workers, ex-servicemen, financial sector retirees, and serving employees of
central and state governments against the ruling party. As per experts in this field, this phenomenon is
likely to be repeated in the coming elections to the assemblies of Rajasthan,
MP, and Chhattisgarh and in the Lok Sabha election to be held in May 2024.
The Reason
for earning their Anger is as follows.
1) Middle
class.
The middle
class of society is the worst hit by the rise in taxes, bearing the burden of a
high rate of tax since they depend on income from employment and are the major
consumers of the products available in the market.
2) Farmers.
They are a
population that mostly depends on nature for their livelihood, and their income
is flexible due to fluctuations in market conditions. Their agricultural
products are not protected from hoardings by middlemen, and the MSP given is
unscientific.
3) The other ranks of ex-servicemen, who form
a major chunk of the ex-servicemen community, are agitated over the
discriminatory treatment meted out to them on the implementation of OROP.
4)Financial
sector retirees in banks, LIC, GIC, etc. are agitated and alienated from the
ruling party for their failure to implement their long-pending demand for
pension updation.
5)The
serving employees are up in arms against the ruling party for their failure to
comply with their demand of going back to OPS, which has already been rolled
back in many opposition-ruled states as a poll promise. The
6)Social
Security Scheme Promise in the Election Manifestos of Opposition Parties have yielded
a good result in recently held Assembly elections. The pension to housewives,
old age pension, widow pension, and unemployment compensation have large takers
within the middle class.
7) Taking a
clue from the trend in the recent Assembly elections and exit poll prediction
for those states that are going to polls very soon, many central Bureaucrats
have already switched their loyalty to opposition leaders, as witnessed in the
initial period of the Second World War, in which Bureaucrats of British India
switched loyalty to Germans. Presently, they are found to be repeating the same
and have started taking orders from the leaders of the opposition party and
extending a helping hand to them.
8) The
combined effort of the above factors may cost much to the ruling party in the
upcoming elections in those states that are likely to go to the polls soon. If
things move in this direction as planned by the opposition parties, they are
likely to make larger poll promises, which are likely to be attracted by the
middle-class sections of society.
9) If such a
volatile political situation arises, there is likely to be a fragmented polity
in India after the next general election and a Kichadi government at the
centre, always targeting the prosecution of leaders of the present ruling party
rather than concentrating on administration. This may also cause great damage
to the already well-built Indian economy, progress made in the defence research
field, and other developments in science and technology.
10) If the
ruling party does not mend its ways & find ways to regain support of the
above sections of society, it will be very difficult for them to defend
combined onslaught of opposition and to come to power in the centre for the
third time in 2024.
(An
independent political analysis without bias or prejudice towards anyone.)
"An article on Indian Polity beyond sentiments"
By M B C Menon
Blogger & Columnist
Thursday, 15 June 2023
Monday, 12 June 2023
Lack of transparency, bureaucratic apathy in 'One Rank One Pension' calculation angers veterans
New Indian Express :Published: 11th June 2023 08:06 AM |
NEW DELHI: Lack of transparency and bureaucratic apathy in the calculation of One Rank One Pension (OROP) has embittered the retired junior commissioned officers and personnel of other ranks. Subedar Major Sukhdev Singh (Retd) says: “Out of Rs 23,000-crore OROP fund, officers consume over 85 per cent and the remaining by the other ranks – Sepoy and Havildars. We, junior commissioned officers, get nothing.”
Sukhdev is one among the
soldiers from across the country protesting the anomalies in the pension
scheme. They blame the officers for consuming most of the funds. But the
Services – Army, Navy and Airforce – have no stake in deciding the pension
things, according to sources.
The Controller General of
Defence Accounts (CGDA), Principal Controller of Defence Accounts (PCDA
Pension) and the Department of Ex-Servicemen Welfare (DESW) in the defence
ministry decide and calculate the pension amount for soldiers. On the issue of
pension fixation, there is a tug of war for data, which is several years old,
between departments in the defence ministry as well as the Defence
Services.
“The data have been sought from
the ministry since 2015-16, but still not provided to them. The Services
headquarters wanted to know the methodology adopted in the calculation of
OROP,” a source in the defence establishment said.
Arrears of approximately Rs
23,638 crore, effective from July 1, 2019, to June 30, 2022, was calculated. It
is expected to benefit more than 25.13 lahks, including over 4.52 lakh new
beneficiaries, including family pensioners.
The government implemented OROP
in 2015 and tables for the fixation of pensions were issued in 2016 with a decision
to review it every five years. In December 2022, the government approved the
revision on the basis of the average minimum and maximum pension of defence
forces retirees of the calendar year 2018 in the same rank with the same length
of service.
Opacity in arriving at the
average OROP pension after the second revision is another issue that was
highlighted by a source. There is an anomaly at multiple levels, including
clubbing of retired personnel with services varying between 15 and 18 years and
giving the same pension. Data here is referred to the number of Havildars, Naib
Subedars, Sepoys and others who retired in the same rank and length of service
and what is the maximum and minimum amount taken in its calculation.
“While the pension authorities have
clubbed the pensions for people serving between 15 and 18 years, there exists
problems for the soldiers granted Honorary Ranks,” said another source. “The
OROP-2 can be seen as a perfect example of bureaucratic apathy and lethargy,”
said the second source as “ the Services having no role in deciding the pension
amount yet they are facing the brunt of the aggrieved pensioners”.
Since 2015, the Indian Army and
its sister organisation -- Indian Air Force and Indian Navy, have been
continuously flagging off the issues to the ministry of defence for clarity on
it. “No response has been provided yet.”
On being asked about its
resolution, the sources added that the Services Headquarters thinks that
transparency is the way ahead in removing the anomalies. “We also want to know
the basis of formulation of the table that decides the pension.” It is
pertinent to mention that rank and length of services are being considered for
deciding the pension amount.
SORE POINTS
Lion’s
share for officers
Of Rs 23,000-crore OROP fund, officers consume over 85% and remaining by the
other ranks – Sepoy and Havildars. Junior commissioned officers get nothing,
said a subedar
Elusive
Data
On the pension fixation front, there is a tug of war for data which is several
years old. The data have been sought from the ministry since 2015-16, but still
not provided. The Services headquarters wanted to know the methodology adopted
for the calculation of OROP.
Rs 23,638
crore
is the arrears calculated, with effective from July 1, 2019 to June 30, 2022
was calculated. It is expected to benefit more than 25.13 lakh, including over
4.52 lakh new beneficiaries and armed forces pensioners/family pensioners.
Honorary
Ranks
Authorities have clubbed the pensions for people serving between 15 and 18
years, but there exists problems for soldiers granted Honorary Ranks
Obscurity
in calculation
Opacity in arriving at the average OROP after the second revision. There is
anomaly at multiple levels, including clubbing of retired personnel with a
service of between 15 and 18 years and giving the same pension.